Thursday, February 23, 2012

Doom and Gloom: A Lesson not Learned

Ah, the end is nigh... Our modern prophets are making sure to remember us how everything we love is not going to be around much longer. There is nothing we can do. It is already set in stone by the powers above and we mere mortals have nothing to do about it than accept and prepare for the inevitable, bitter end. Good bye, farewell and thank you for all the fish.

No, I am not talking about 2012...
I am talking about all the doom and gloom that permeate the gaming press. It seems impossible to pass a week without at least one article saying how some company is doomed or that franchise is dying or how the way we play will be completely different. Consoles are dying. PC games are dying. Portable devices are dying. Retail games are dying while small 2 bucks games are thriving. Not, it is the other way around. Choose your prophecy.

The 3DS is a great example why those prophecies are mostly done by people who don't know shit about what are you talking about.  Everyone was putting doubts about the chances of it being a success. The initial numbers where all confirming this. Except Nintendo recovered. In fact, Nintendo is the great example why those seers have no idea what they talk about.

Yes, dog. All have gone shit after the dismiss of Nintendo. Oh, wait...
Nintendo, before the Wii, was predicted to go the Sega route and disappear of the hardware marketing. And now it is the number one company this gen. In fact, I don't remember people predicting Sega's demise at the time of the Dreamcast. Maybe it was a different time or I wasn't aware of this, but to me it was quite a surprise that Sega quit the hardware market.

Or the Guitar Hero franchise? Nobody said anything about it ending until it started to end. Them everyone knew what was going to happen before happening. After happening. Meta, huh?

Today's prophecy is all about the eminent failure of the PS Vita. Because of the weak launch at Japan, everyone knows that the console is doomed. It is as fact as I am breathing now. Except nobody have convincing arguments about it. The PS3 was doomed too, three years ago. It doesn't seem it will go anywhere right now.

The greatest true is that all those predictions are based in nothing but today's numbers. They are not based on anything except what the charts says about this day. Most 'analysts' don't have any method or previous experience to make their predictions. They look at the numbers of the past and present and just see what the tendency is. Are the numbers going down? Doom. Are they going up? Guaranteed success. But we all now how much they fail to predict tendencies. Why?

Because the game market is one market that defy all other markets. It is not about the tech, about the trend. It is not that simple. Many times what seems certain is not.  What the gamers want is not what seems trendy or different or samey. Those 'analysts' don't know the gamers. That is why all those predictions have a higher chance to fail than to confirm.

The lesson I wish everyone learns is that those predictions must not determine what we play, what we buy. The guys saying it knows nothing more than you do. Play what you want, where you want. The future is not written yet.

I predict the end of COD! HAHA BUZZZZZZ!!!

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